Whether call#

Fri, 23 Feb 2007 15:04:02 +0000

It's my turn to lead the LFNS again tonight (second attempt at the route that was rained off two weeks ago). This is not nearly as much stress as stories from years ago indicate that it used to be, because our slick well-oiled (cough) administrative machinery has already taken care of updating the web site, charging the radios, ensuring the marshal hi-viz vests will turn up, etc, and because we don't have the bike to worry about this week (it's in beta test: will be out on Sunday and if that goes well, probably Fridays thereafter) there's none of that to deal with either.

So the only thing I have to worry about between now and 5pm is guessing what the weather will be doing between 8 and 10 and whether it'll be dry enough to skate. The deal is as follows: if it's obviously going to be raining, we can call the skate off at 5 and everyone who has a life has time to organise some kind of backup plan. If it's obviously sunny, we don't. If it's somewhere between the two, we can call the skate on (if we're wrong and it rains, we've dragged lots of annoyed marshals away from their homes for no good reason, ditto skaters who believed us) or off (if we're wrong, people bellyache that we could have gone skating but didn't. We're not going to reverse the decision after we've made it, because marshals make other plans and we don't keep them "on call", but we might go for an unmarshalled "suicide" skate instead).

On days like today, the question is "who do you trust?". See graphic on the right (from the BBC weather site) and speculate on whather the rain which will start between 9 and midnight will be before 10 (problem) or after 10 (problem only for people who skate home afterwards). Then look at the graphic on the left, from uk.weather.com, - usually a more pessimistic forecast, and if they only said "showers" I'd ignore them, but "light rain" usually means they expect continuous light rain. For the full analysis paralysis experience we usually then go on to check the BBC rainfall map and the rather cool European IR satellite animation from the Met Office. Then we stick a finger in the air and toss a coin.

Anyway, I can happily ignore matters for another two hours and it might be more obvious by then. Decision on www.lfns.co.uk about 5pm - if you see thefns.com update before that it is (for reasons I have [[explained already => This made me laugh]]) taking a guess. Which, I grant you, is exactly what I'm doing too, but the difference is that my guess governs whether we attempt to go out tonight, and theirs doesn't. Enough about that.

Finishing on a brighter note: ny knees are working again. Must have just been rest they needed.